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theodore M I R A L D I mpa ... editor, publisher, writer
Thursday, October 13, 2016
Rasmussen: HE'S BACK IN LEAD!
Socio-political commentary ... White House Watch: Trump Takes the Lead
Thursday, October 13, 2016
The full results from Sunday night’s debate are in, and Donald Trump has come from behind to take the lead over Hillary Clinton.
The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 43% support among Likely U.S. Voters to Clinton’s 41%. Yesterday, Clinton still held a four-point 43% to 39% lead over Trump, but that was down from five points on Tuesday and her biggest lead ever of seven points on Monday.
Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. Monday’s survey was the first following the release of an 11-year-old video showing Trump discussing women in graphic sexual detail but did not include any polling results taken after the debate. All three nights of the latest survey follow Sunday’s debate.
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has dropped slightly to six percent (6%) support, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein holds steady at two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) still like some other candidate in the race, and another four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Eighty-four percent (84%) now say they are certain how they will vote in this year’s presidential election, and among these voters, Trump posts a 49% to 46% lead over Clinton. Among voters who say they still could change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Clinton 40%, Trump 37%, Johnson 19% and Stein four percent (4%).
The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 10-12, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Trump has 75% support among Republicans, nearly identical to Clinton’s 76% backing among Democrats. He has 15% of the Democratic vote; she picks up 13% GOP support. Trump holds a double-digit advantage among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
Johnson gets 13% of the unaffiliated vote, but like Stein is in low single digits among Democrats and Republicans.
Clinton continues to lead among women, while Trump has regained his advantage among men. Those under 40 still prefer the Democrat but also remain the most undecided. Older voters favor Trump. The older the voter, the more likely he or she is to be certain of their vote.
Trump remains ahead among whites and has a slight lead among other minority voters. He appears to be making a dent in the black vote, but blacks still overwhelmingly favor Clinton.
Ninety (90%) of voters who Strongly Approve of the job President Obama is doing choose Clinton. Among voters who Strongly Disapprove of the president’s job performance, 89% prefer Trump.
Hillary Clinton jumped on the release last week of an 11-year-old video in which Trump makes graphic sexual comments to say it shows her Republican rival's demeaning attitude toward women. But Trump countered that Clinton was an enabler who allowed her husband, former President Bill Clinton, to sexually assault women for years. We’ll tell you what voters think at 10:30 a.m. Eastern today.