Thursday, November 3, 2016
Trump Takes The LEAD with 50% 0f LIKELY Voters
White House Watch: Trump Takes The Lead
Thursday, November 03, 2016
Republican Donald Trump has a three-point lead in Rasmussen Reports’ White House Watch survey. Among voters who are certain how they will vote, Trump now has over 50% support.
The latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Trump leading Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton 45% to 42%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has four percent (4%) support, and Green Party hopeful Jill Stein picks up just one percent (1%). Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and four percent (4%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Clinton and Trump have been tied for the previous two days. This is the first time Trump’s been ahead in the White House Watch in nearly two weeks, but it remains to be seen whether this is the start of a trend or a one-day hiccup.
Eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters say they are now certain how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump has a 10-point lead over Clinton – 53% to 43%. Johnson gets two percent (2%) and Stein one percent (1%). This is the first time any candidate has crossed the 50% mark. Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 36%, Trump 36%, Johnson 22% and Stein six percent (6%).
Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 31 and November 1-2, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]
Open enrollment for 2017 under President Obama’s health care law began yesterday, but insurance premiums are expected to skyrocket in many parts of the country. Voters overwhelmingly favor changes in Obamacare, with more voters than ever calling for its outright repeal. Trump advocates repealing and replacing the law.
Clinton and Trump both earn 83% support from voters in their respective parties and have just over 10% support among voters in their opponent’s party. Trump holds a double-digit lead among unaffiliated voters, but these voters are also the most likely to say they could still change their minds.
The GOP candidate still leads among men, while the two are in a near tie among women.
Clinton remains well ahead among those under 40, while older voters continue to prefer Trump by similar margins. Younger voters are still the least sure of how they will actually vote.
Trump holds his lead among whites but continues to be far behind among black and other minority voters. Whites are the most certain of their vote.
We’ll tell you at 10:30 a.m. whether voters approve or disapprove of FBI Director James Comey’s decision to announce before the election that the criminal investigation of Clinton’s mishandling of classified information while secretary of State has been reopened.
In a survey just prior to Comey’s announcement, 37% of Clinton voters said her mishandling of classified information is important to their vote, compared to 96% of Trump voters. Most undecided voters and supporters of Johnson and Stein also consider this an important voting issue.
The majority of all voters consider the allegations of sexual harassment by multiple women against Trump important to their vote. But women (10%) are even less likely than men (14%) to say the allegations have caused them to change their vote.
Clinton is the first woman presidential nominee of a major U.S. political party, but most voters, including the vast majority of women, insist that won’t make a difference when they cast their vote.
It's another presidential election cycle, and voters are more stressed at family and friends.